Praxeology is defined as “the study of human conduct.” This study is one building cornerstone in Austrian economics showing individual choices are key for a person’s future direction. We thank Ludwig von Mises for pioneering praxeology and its importance to one of his defining books, Human Action.
A recent article posted on oilprice.com entitled, “The Pentagon Pizza Index: Late Night Munchies and Global Crises” is one area of praxeology with unexpected outcomes. The article describes, “The Pentagon Pizza Index theorizes that a sudden increase in pizza orders near the Pentagon often precedes major global military or political events. The logic behind this theory is that Pentagon and intelligence staff order pizza when working late due to brewing crises.”
Human behavior shows that even defense and foreign policy people eat while working late in the night in Washington, DC.
Historical “coincidences,” such as spikes in pizza orders before the US invasion of Grenada (October 1983) and Operation Desert Storm (January 1991), have made this pattern difficult to ignore for journalists and open-source investigators.
The Pentagon Pizza Index (PPI), not the Producer Price Index, is credited to Frank Meeks who was a Domino’s Pizza franchise owner in the DC area. He passed away in November 2004 at the age of 48.
In October 1983, US military forces invaded the far southern Caribbean island nation of Grenada to enact DC’s foreign policy through Operation Urgent Fury. They came at the request of Paul Scoon, Grenada’s governor general, who succeeded Maurice Bishop. Maurice was a socialist. Grenada received economic aid from Cuba and Russia which made him unpopular to the DC policy elite. Bishop was seized and executed by a military coup in the days prior to the US lead military invasion.
Over the next nine days US troops would rescue American citizens, restore a popular native government, and eliminate a perceived threat to the stability of the Caribbean and American strategic interests there.
This foreign policy intervention in the Grenada invasion and Mr. Meeks Domino’s franchise is where the PPI began,
His drivers reported an unusual flurry of orders to government buildings, a pattern that aligned with late-night planning sessions as the Reagan administration prepared for the surprise invasion. This early example set the stage for the Pizza Index’s reputation as a curious predictor of military action.
In December 1989, the U.S. launched Operation Just Cause to remove Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega. The night before, pizza deliveries to the Pentagon reportedly doubled, mirroring the Grenada pattern. Frank Meeks’ Domino’s outlets were inundated with orders, with drivers noting heightened security and activity at government facilities. This spike aligned with late-night strategy sessions, adding another data point to the growing legend of the Pizza Index.
As the U.S. geared up for Operation Desert Storm in January 1991, pizza orders to the Pentagon and CIA spiked dramatically. Meeks again noted his delivery teams working overtime to supply government offices, with reports indicating a near doubling of late-night orders.
December 1998 saw the PPI appear with the US launching Operation Desert Fox against Iraq while President Bill Clinton faced US House of Representative impeachment hearings.
The Washington Post reporting a 32 percent increase in extra-cheese pizza orders to the White House alone. Meeks’ drivers confirmed a similar uptick at the Pentagon, suggesting that simultaneous crises—military and political—kept staff fueled with late-night pizza.
The Iran-Israel conflict of 2024-2025 added to the DC PPI:
...the Pizza Index has gone digital, with social media accounts like @PenPizzaReport on X tracking real-time delivery trends. On April 13, 2024, as Iran launched drone and missile attacks on Israel following a consulate bombing, pizzerias near the Pentagon saw “busier than usual” indicators on Google Maps and delivery apps.
In June 2025, surges on June 1 and June 12–13 preceded Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and a U.S. bombing campaign against Iranian facilities, reinforcing the index’s relevance in the OSINT era.
OSINT means open source intelligence like social media posts, pizza delivery observations, etc.
The X PenPizzaReport makes for good reading. One past, current, and future gauge of US foreign policy and military intervention occurring is look at the DC PPI. The PPI increases historically happen at night in DC, indicating a major US foreign and military geopolitical event underway: “...you might just spot the first sign of a global crisis in a stack of pizza boxes.”
